SCC Preview: Second Talladega race up for grabs

Trying to get a handle on the restrictor plate races, especially Talladega, has been maddening for The Guru. As a matter of fact, I said back before the April race that I felt more like a "goober" than a "guru." My Talladega teams have scored so badly even a member of Congress couldn't make the numbers add up or look good.

I shouldn't feel that bad about it, but I do. Then again, if there's one track where the only thing certain is the uncertainty, it's Talladega. How do you explain the fact Paul Menard has scored the most points in the past two races and was the runner-up in this race a year ago? Or that Brad Keselowski's win back in April was not only his first Sprint Cup victory, but the first for team owner James Finch since he began running Cup in 1990? Or in the very same race Scott Speed finishes fifth for the only top-5 he's ever had? Or how Ryan Newman was third this spring, but dead last, last fall?

I'm going to use a different strategy this time. No more poring over the stats. No more tearing my hair out trying to stay one step ahead of the racing gods. No, this time I'm going to follow the drivers' take on Talladega. Every time you ask them about who's going to finish where in Alabama, they tell you it's so hard to predict that the best thing you can do is put the numbers in a hat and pull them out one a time. So, you know what, that's exactly what I did. I picked out what I thought was the best seven possibilities and the worst seven. Then, I put slips of paper with the number of each of the remaining 29 cars in my ESPN cap and pulled them out one by one.

Now, some would argue that's no way for The Guru to act, that even a monkey could set the rankings that way. I agree and if my results are lame again, one of my banana buddies will handle the picks the next time. Below is what the new "cap strategy" picked out.

1. Jeff Gordon
2. Tony Stewart
3. Ryan Newman
4. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Kyle Busch
7. Juan Pablo Montoya
8. Clint Bowyer
9. Brian Vickers
10. Jeff Burton
11. David Ragan
12. Mark Martin
13. Jamie McMurray
14. Jimmie Johnson
15. Joey Logano
16. Brad Keselowski
17. Greg Biffle
18. Paul Menard
19. Bobby Labonte
20. Martin Truex Jr.
21. Matt Kenseth
22. David Reutimann
23. Carl Edwards
24. Kevin Harvick
25. Kurt Busch
26. Reed Sorenson
27. Marcos Ambrose
28. Elliott Sadler
29. David Stremme
30. Regan Smith
31. Scott Speed
32. Sam Hornish Jr.
33. Casey Mears
34. A.J. Allmendinger
35. Michael Waltrip
36. Kasey Kahne
37. Robby Gordon
38. John Andretti
39. Max Papis
40. Erik Darnell
41. Tony Raines
42. Joe Nemechek
43. Dave Blaney

Restrictor plate points 2009: Top 25, 3 of 4 races run

1. Matt Kenseth (454), 2. Kurt Busch (449), 3. Tony Stewart (436), 4. Marcos Ambrose (422), 5. David Ragan (406), 6. Elliott Sadler (405), 7. Juan Pablo Montoya (367), 8. Carl Edwards (365), 9. Greg Biffle (363), 10. Denny Hamlin (357), 11. Regan Smith (345), 12. Brian Vickers (339), 13. Jeff Burton (338), 14. AJ Allmendinger (335), 15. Ryan Newman (333), 16. Reed Sorenson (332), 17. Jimmie Johnson (318), 18. Dale Earnhardt Jr. (308), 19. Kevin Harvick (304), 20. Michael Waltrip (303), 21. Casey Mears (299), 22. Martin Truex Jr. (292), 23. Scott Speed (288), 24. Joey Logano (283), 25. Clint Bowyer (282)

Big Bucks (SCC value 22.0 and up)

Among the eight drivers here, there isn't a dog in the bunch. Jeff Gordon (24.7) and Tony Stewart (24.2) have strong Talladega records. Ryan Newman (22.6) has been top-8 in three of the past four races on the towering high-banks. Juan Pablo Montoya (23.1) has finished as high as second and hasn't been out of the Talladega top-25 in his past four starts.

Serious Coins (SCC value 19.0 to 22.0)

One guy in this group who's proved to be a quick study when it comes to restrictor plate racing is Marcos Ambrose (19.8). He was fourth at Talladega this spring. Plus, he was 17th and on the lead lap in both Daytona races this year. Kyle Busch (21.7) has done some damage in the past at Talladega, as has Brian Vickers (20.2). Jeff Burton (19.7) can be sneaky good in plate races from time to time too.

Budget Boys (SCC value 13.0 to 19.0)

I know he destroyed my team last week at Martinsville, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. (16.8) always needs serious consideration at Talladega especially when his price is so cheap. In the past three races there, David Ragan (16.0) has finished no worse than 12th, with two top-5 finishes. Joey Logano (19.2) was ninth in April. If Kevin Harvick (18.8) or Martin Truex Jr. (17.9) can catch a break, they are worthy of consideration. Bobby Labonte (15.8) is in the No. 71 this week, and a sixth-place finish a year ago is a reminder that he's a pretty darn good plate racer who does have a Talladega win to his credit. And what about Paul Menard (15.2)? The worst he's finished in past three Talladega starts is 14th with a runner-up a year ago and a 13th-place in the spring. If you need to go lower and you think he can get lucky again, then Scott Speed (14.8), who finished fifth in April, might be your man. Say, also what you will about Michael Waltrip (14.4), but he's always been great little plate racer and he might be worth some thought.

Debit ... not credit

The only three drivers I can tell you to stay away from are the start-and-parks: Davey Blaney, Joe Nemechek and Tony Raines. After that, given that it's Talladega, your guess is as good as mine.

Guru Garrow's gang

I've done so poorly in the past few races at Talladega, I'm going to try a new tactic. I'm going to take the same team I had last week that scored a whopping 600 points and let it ride at Talladega. After all, 'Dega is such a luck-of-the-draw deal. So, once again I'm penciling into my lineup Jeff Gordon, Ryan Newman, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex Jr. and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Wouldn't that be a kick in the pants if they finished first to fifth? My luck, though, they'll all be just like I was 20 years ago -- thirtysomething.